What is wtd?

WTD, or Weighted Total Duration, is a metric used in project management and schedule risk analysis. It represents the sum of each activity's duration multiplied by its probability of occurrence. It provides a more realistic estimate of the project duration than simply using the initial estimated duration, as it considers the likelihood of different scenarios playing out. It factors in both the optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely durations, as well as the probability of each occurring. Essentially, WTD gives a probability-weighted average duration for each task, which are then summed to derive the WTD of the entire project.

Here's a breakdown of key aspects:

• Calculation: The basic formula for WTD is: Σ (Duration * Probability) for all activities. More complex formulas, incorporating optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely durations, exist (e.g., using a PERT distribution).

• Purpose: To provide a more accurate and realistic schedule estimate than a simple deterministic calculation, accounting for uncertainties and risks.

• Application: Commonly used in Monte Carlo simulations and other probabilistic scheduling techniques. Helps in understanding the potential range of project completion dates.

• Benefits: Improved risk awareness, better decision-making, and more realistic project plans.

• Related Concepts: Critical Path Method (CPM), Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Monte Carlo Simulation, Schedule Risk Analysis.

Key subjects include:

• Project Management
• Schedule Risk Analysis
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
• Critical Path Method (CPM)